Dried out early
Knowing what the future will bring is not all that easy. On Tuesday, the sky was dark with over running (cumulus) clouds soon after
sunrise. By 8 AM they had mostly dried up and while there were still cu's around
it looked like they would all dry up. I sent Mike Degtoff an SMS to cancel the
towing for the day. Soon after that the cu's started building again. By 9 AM there were definite
cloud streets, but not as thick and as plentiful as the day before. I had
predicted that this would not happen and certainly wouldn't happen so quickly. I
was wrong. But then I wondered what the day would bring. If the early indicators of a dry
day would in fact come true. By noon the cu's were gone, unlike yesterday, and
the everything has dried up. No cloud streets. My forecast was just good for
later in the day. Earlier I seen a slight westerly component in the NAM and RAP forecast for 2000'
winds. This made me feel that the dry would be drier than the previous day
(straight south winds). The winds were forecasted to be stronger (23-25 knots).
The NAM and the RAP forecasts disagreed on the presence of cumulus clouds at 10
AM. Neither of them shows cu's at 1 PM along the course line. No cu's predicted at 10 AM tomorrow or Thursday. We'll see. They were predicted
by NAM and RAP for yesterday, so that both got that right. It is 21 mph gusting to 28 mph at the Georgetown airport at 11:47 AM and 16 mph
gusting to 28 mph at 12:47.
http://OzReport.com/1372184288
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