http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/04/30/1380954/-Super-El-Nino-Likely-as-Huge-Warm-Water-Wave-Hits-West-Coast-Extreme-Marine-Die-Off-Developing

NOAA's CFSv2 model is forecasting a strong El Nino event will
develop this summer and continue through 2015. Warm water along the west coast,
combined with weaker than normal winds caused by El Nino will prevent nutrient
rich cold water from welling up along the coast. Species that depend on nutrient
upwelling will face starvation. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has an
excellent El Nino forecasting model which is also predicting a strong El Nino.
Because the jet stream has already gone into an El Nino pattern by moving south
over the eastern Pacific ocean and Mexico and further north than normal over the
eastern Atlantic ocean, the likelihood of El Nino failing to strengthen is
small. Last year's Kelvin wave failed to bring on a strong El Nino because trade
winds in the south Pacific didn't weaken but this year they have and waters
along the west coast of south America have already warmed. The south Pacific has
moved out of the cool mode it was in a year ago.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

ENSO indicators in the tropical Pacific are approaching El Niño
levels. Sea surface temperatures now exceed El Niño thresholds and trade winds
have remained weaker than average for several weeks. This suggests some coupling
between the ocean and atmosphere may be occurring. If these patterns persist or
strengthen, El Niño will become established.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ocean
temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the
southern hemisphere spring. However, the accuracy of model outlooks at this time
of year, the traditional El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition period,
is lower than at other times.