http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/11/how-can-there-be-flooding-when-we-are.html

As I will demonstrate, the NOAA Drought Monitor information is
unscientific and subjective. More of a political and motivational tool than
reliable guidance to make key decisions.

First, it is ridiculous to claim that our entire state is in moderate or more
severe drought. There are stronger words I could have used, but this is is a
family friendly blog.

As I write this blog, many of our local rivers are flooding with nearly all
Washington rivers running above normal. For example, here is the latest USGS
streamflow map. Nearly the entire state has streamflows that are well above
normal (green, blue, and black), with some of the largest flows over the eastern
slopes of the Cascades.

Most of the state is above normal, including all of western Washington, the
Cascades, including the eastern slopes, and most of far eastern Washington.

How about the official crop moisture index? Way above normal in western WA and
normal in the east.

I know what you are thinking, what about snowpack? Surely, that is well below
normal! Well, we don't hide anything on this blog...here are the latest % of
normal for the date of snow water content for the U.S. Government SNOTEL sites.
In general, we are close to normal, with sites ranging from 42 to 205%. And many
of our ski areas will be opening early for Thanksgiving (e.g., Baker, Whistler).

But what about our reservoirs? Surely, they are way below normal due to the
drought! The truth is that many of our reservoirs are well above normal from
recent rains.

I could show you more, but you get the point. It is silly to suggest that we are
in a drought. We are not. And typical precipitation during even strong El Nino
years is generally at or slightly below normal, so there is no reason to expect
a drought ahead.

Now, I know what you are wondering. If it is evident that there is no drought,
why is the Drought Monitor saying we are NOW in a serious drought?

And now the key point: it is a SUBJECTIVE, QUALITATIVE BLEND of all kinds of
information, including subjective appraisals of impacts. It is not a strictly
objective index based on precipitation, soil moisture, and the like. And the
folks that make this index tend to seriously exaggerate drought, as should be
obvious to anyone who read the early part of my blog. I will let you speculate
why they are producing an unreliable product.

The Drought Monitor is unscientific, subjective and is doing the nation and our
region a disservice by providing unreliable information that will lead
authorities and governments to make the wrong decisions. It is also being used
by some to hype the current impacts of climate change produced by anthropogenic
greenhouse gases.

Our society needs to plan and make adaptations for upcoming climate change.
Products like the Drought Monitor will hinder efforts to do so in a rational,
robust fashion. It should be ended and replaced by a rational, completely
objective product.