This is my morning forecast:

• NWS says 70% chance of rain.


• NWS service calls for 7-8 mph west surface winds.


• High of 87 degrees.


• Updraft velocity 200 - 300 fpm. NAM says Top of lift 3,000’. RAP says 0 – 1,000’.

We did not have any rain or any chance of rain.

The wind was 10 mph out of the west northwest.

At first the lift was very weak (subtract 200 fpm from 200 to 300 fpm updraft
velocity).

It turned out to be a much better day than the forecast, but the lift was still
really weak.

After a reflight I was able to climb to 3,200' at 400 fpm.

We opened launch at 1 PM with a small task to the north and back:

Pilots got towed up and soon we were all huddling up in the air together in 0 to
100 fpm not getting high and barely staying up. I climbed up to 100 fpm to
2,700' from 1,800'. Repeatedly we would circle together climb up a little and
drift downwind to the east not getting near the low cloud base at 3,200'.

This went on for almost an hour for me. I finally decided to go out on my own as
I saw almost half a dozen pilots landing. I found 100 fpm south of Quest from
1,100' to 1,700'. Of course, another half a dozen pilots came over and joined me
which made it less fun. Finally I left and landed and got a reflight. Many pilots
were choosing not to launch again.

Oleg stayed up. Jonny and then later Zac landed soon after I did. More pilots
landed and there were a couple of dozen on the ground.

I launched again quickly and was pulled west upwind by Jim Prahl and waved off
at 2,000'. There were clouds ahead and I was in the blue. I pushed upwind toward
the clouds into a 10 mph head wind and then saw the pilot who had just towed
before me turning in the blue and went to him. The lift averaged 300 fpm 
to 3,255', where I had to get out from under the cloud and came back under
Jonny. Andy and two other pilots had joined us.

Heading out west northwest with Andy and another pilot and one behind we headed
for the next cu's upwind. I found a bit of lift that I really really should have
stayed in just on the edge of the start cylinder.

I pushed forward with another pilot to the next cu's and found 25 fpm, that
again I should have stayed with. Too happy with the 300 fpm that I went to
earlier. Had to land soon.

Andy went north from our little group and landed a few kilometers out south of
Grass Roots with half a dozen others. Zac got towed up again as did Jonny
earlier. Zac did the course. Oleg was just behind him and then Jonny. Cory
landed 8 kilometers short.

Quite a day given that the forecast was so bad in both senses.

Pilots falling out of the sky:

Photos by Mike Degtoff.