https://airtribune.com/2017-quest-air-cross-country/blog__day_16

Each evening I send out a forecast for the next day to the pilots
who are flying in the Quest Air Cross Country. In the morning I update the
forecast and set a goal on paper, in email and on Airtribune (although I forgot
on Wednesday to set the task in Airtribune). Belinda set the task with an
incorrect turnpoint later as we were flying.

Here is the forecast and task for Wednesday:

2017 Quest Cross Country, March 8th

National Weather Service forecast:

A 20 percent chance of showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high
near 82. South wind around 5 mph becoming west northwest in the
afternoon.

NAM soaring forecast:

1PM

400-600 fpm lift

8,000' - 9,000' top of lift

4,000' - 5,000' cloudbase

West wind 7 mph at 2,000'

West wind 7 mph at 30'

4PM

300-400 fpm lift

6,000' - 7,000' top of lift

5,000' - 6,000' cloudbase

West northwest wind 10 mph at 2,000'

RAP forecast:

1 PM

400-600 fpm lift

5,000' - 6,000' top of lift

5,000' - 6,000' cloudbase

Southwest wind 7 mph at 2,000'

South southwest wind 8 mph at 30'

4PM

200-300 fpm lift

5,000' - 6,000' top of lift

5,000' - 6,000' cloudbase

Northwest wind 7 mph at 2,000'

Task: Launch Noon, Start 12:15 PM

 

Quest, 3km

Turn33, 400m

Center, 400m

Quest, 400m

The winds turned out to be lighter than forecast, which was nice.

The day started with the air full of moisture so the sky was white with no
clouds. We hadn't seen this all spring. When we got into the air we had limited
visibility due to all the moisture. You could see a few cu's ahead and then
nothing.

Larry was off first and I was second pinning off low at 1,200'. Greg got pulled
high further south to Larry and they worked up together as I worked good lift to
their north over the field.

The sky was full of cu's which were faded due to all the moisture in the air. I
headed west to some cu's as Larry and Greg headed north from south of me. I was
able to climb up to cloud base at 3,400' at 250 fpm and then head north.

I could see Larry and Greg circling to my north east then only Greg as Larry
scooted to the west under me. I followed him from above and when Larry found
lift the three of us joined up and climbed out to over 3,800', again cloud base.

Greg was below and Larry and I left him behind. Larry and I were climbing at
almost exactly the same climb rate, both with new Wills Wing T2C 144's - all
carbon. Greg is blaming his decisions on being behind, but I recall he was
always climbing through us before.

Larry and I flew together and helped each other. I had forgotten to plug in my
push-to-talk button, but I could hear everything that they said. Larry would
glide faster than I would but that didn't seem to allow him to pull away. We
climbed up at the same rate.

With the wind south southwest at 6 mph, we had an easy time getting to the
Turnpike and the intersection at 33. Our climb rates varied between 150 and 300
fpm on average and we would climb to cloud base.

We worked a 300+ fpm thermal about two thirds of the way southwest toward Center
Hill at over 4,200'. Larry headed off to the south west toward a cu that would
put us a little south and east of Center Hill. I wanted to head straight west to
a bank of cu's over the turnpoint. Larry said later that he would have gone with
me in that direction if I had gone there, but I was sticking with Larry.

The cu didn't pan out and I headed immediately to the west toward the turnpoint
and the bank of cu's that I had seen before. I continued west getting under the
cu's south and west of the turnpoint. Finally, down to 1,400' I felt the lift
and turned.

Larry was just to my north and found even better lift I quickly joined him, but
he was already 300' over me. We climbed to over 4,000'.

Heading southeast toward Quest Air we worked some weak lift by the nursery and
then found 500 fpm just south of highway 50 from 2,300'. I took five turns and
pulled out at 3,200' with more than enough altitude to race into goal.

Larry got high, made it to goal and then did the task again. Greg landed short
on the way in from Center Hill. Patrick Halfhill launched later, made it to the
Turnpike, but not back to Quest Air.