Here's the forecast for the day:


NWS forecast: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph
becoming northwest in the afternoon.

NAM3 forecast:

1 PM:


Lift: 477 fpm (other models vary between 0 and 756 fpm)

TOL: 4,307’ (other models vary between 994’ and 8,945’)

Cloudbase: No cu’s (one other model shows cu’s at 8,283’)

Surface wind: northwest 10 mph (other models vary between 8 and 14 mph west
northwest to northwest)

TOL wind: northwest 15 mph (other models vary between 14 and 20 mph west
northwest to northwest)

4 PM:


Lift: 338 fpm (other models vary between 0 and 577 fpm)

TOL: 5,632’ (other models vary between 994’ and 8,283’)

Cloudbase: No cu’s Surface wind: northwest 13 mph (other models vary between 8
and 14 mph west northwest to northwest)

TOL wind: northwest 18 mph (other models vary between 12 and 18 mph west
northwest to northwest)

SkySight (between 1 PM and 4 PM):


Lift: 350 – 450 fpm

TOL: 6,000’ – 7,000’

Cloudbase: 5,000’ – 7000’ disappears after 4 PM

Surface wind: northwest 8 – 12 mph

TOL wind: west 18 – 20 mph

Convergence: west northwest to east southeast Palmyra to Burlington and Richmond
to Lake Geneva forming later in the day

With all the rain yesterday I would expect the the climbing conditions to be
less like Friday and more like last Thursday. But in addition we will have
stronger wind conditions than either day which should increase the difficulty.

The task:


https://airtribune.com/midwest-2017/blog__day_1

I'm doing the weather and I am on the task committee also. I wanted a 15 km
start cylinder to deal with the wind and weak lift, but we compromised at 12 km.
That didn't turn out well for me.

We trekked over to the Palmyra Municipal airport for its east-west runway to go
with the forecast of an west northwest day with winds up to 20 mph at top of
lift. Nice big grass runway 250 feet wide, plenty of room for two launch lines.

The launch wasn't until 1 PM. When we got there at 9:45 AM cirrus covered most
of the sky. As the day progressed cu's formed to the northwest in an east west
line. By around 12:30 PM this thin line of cu's were over the airport but
rapidly moving to the south. Other cu's were way way to the southeast.

With the cu's rapidly disappearing as we started launch, things did not look
good. Basically a blue sky with some remnants of the cirrus moving away to the
south.

I was nineteenth to launch and pinned off at 2,200' AGL. I had felt a tiny bit
of lift after a tow through sinking air. All the pilots ranked higher than me in
WPRS points were below me having not found much lift after getting off tow.

I started working the weak stuff at 54 fpm just trying to stay up. I saw two
Litespeeds turning near me and way below me so it seemed like a few of us were
out there trying to get up. One of them may have been Niki Longshore. The rest
of the pilots disappeared back to the launch. We were 2 km south of launch and
starting out at 2,200' AGL.

Let me just say that again. All the higher ranked pilots other than these two
didn't get up and went back and landed to get another tow up later.

I kept turning and found 214 fpm while Niki and the other Moyes pilot kept
turning close by but way lower. I was hoping that they would hang in there with
me and that we would be able to get together and fly the course together.

I had taken off at 1:17 PM. The start window on the 12 km start cylinder opened
at 2 PM. I was facing a 14 mph west northwest wind. This presents a very tricky
problem that I was most concerned about. Could I get high and also stay inside
the start cylinder?

I climbed to 5,000' at 1:35 PM. I was way higher than anyone else. Unfortunately
I was also alone as Niki and the other Moyes pilot went back to the launch as
they weren't able to climb with me. Drat.

Then I spotted two other pilots near me but again way way low. Would they find
some lift? I was only 5 km from the start but I didn't think that I would be
able to make it back to the launch into a 14 mph headwind even from 4,200' AGL.

I watched these lower pilots as I searched around under wispy cu's for some more
lift to keep me up or get me higher. The inversion looked to be about 5,000'.
Soon at least one of the pilots landed and I lost track of the other. They were
both very low.

I had succeeded in getting high. I wasn't forced to go back to the airport to
re-launch. unlike most other higher ranked pilots (if not all of them). I felt that
it would be stupid to even try to do so since I had just succeeded where no one
else had and where all the best pilots in the meet were on the ground or soon to
be. It felt like it would be nuts to give up all my gains and go back and start
again. Even though the day might be better later. It did not look good over
launch with no cu's around.

I went searching for lift near nearby wispies. I found 22 fpm. Then 20 fpm near
the next wispies. And that was it. I was able to stop going down but not
stop being pushed by the wind to the east. I needed a strong thermal to make it
possible to stay upwind of the start cylinder edge or to go upwind for a few
moments.

It was now a struggle to find better lift, not just zero sink because if I
started too early I would be very heavily penalized. I had to serve two masters,
the need for lift and the need to stop going east. I was not able to fight them
successfully. I left the start cylinder racing to get under a cu two minutes too
early.

There was plenty of buoyancy as I got closer to the ground but with the strong
wind there was not a thermal. After I landed in a nice grass field I spotted the
vultures ridge soaring the barn. They sure weren't thermaling.

More news on how the relaunchers did later. Some were doing very well.