NWS forecast: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Northeast wind 5
to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high
as 25 mph.

The 25 mph gust is forecasted only for 11 AM. Launch wind speed forecasted to be
16 mph northeast.

NAM3 forecast:

1 PM:


Lift: 477 fpm (other models vary between 0 and 517 fpm. But most basically agree with NAM3)

TOL: 3,313’ (other models vary between 2,651’ and 4,307’)

Cloudbase: No cu’s (All models show no cu’s)

Surface wind: northeast 13 mph (other models basically agree)

TOL wind: northeast 18 mph (other models vary between 17 and 24 mph northeast)

4 PM:


Lift: 477 fpm (other models vary between 0 and 537 fpm)

TOL: 3,644’ (other models vary between 3,313’ and 4,638’)

Cloudbase: No cu’s

Surface wind: northeast 14 mph (other models vary between 12 and 16 mph northeast)

TOL wind: northeast 25 mph (other models vary between 18 and 25 mph northeast)

SkySight (between 1 PM and 4 PM):


Lift: 350 – 400 fpm

TOL: 3,000’ – 4,000’ (2000’ – 3000’ at 1 PM)

Cloudbase: 3,000’ – 4,000’ (2000’ – 3000’ at 1 PM)

Surface wind: northeast 10 – 12 mph

TOL wind: east northeast 16– 20 mph

The models more closely match each other than yesterday giving greater
confidence in the forecast. For sure strong northeast winds at TOL. Low TOL at
under 5,000’ likely between 3,000’ and 4,000’. Strong inversion between 3,000’
and 4,000’ rising during the day. There is a chance for thin cu’s.

I’d say a more difficult day than Sunday and also a later day like Sunday with
lower TOL, low climb rates, and stronger winds aloft.

Temperature at TOL: 53°. Five degrees warmer than yesterday at a much
lower altitude.

Better conditions on Tuesday.

The meet officials determined that overall conditions were not conducive to safe
tasks. Local readings were 18 mph gusting to 24 mph,
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJVL.html, and the winds didn't quite
down until 7 PM.

We organized a big group to go ride single track at Cam-Rock Park
https://www.mtbproject.com/trail/577682 and we loved the park.