The forecast for the day:


NWS forecast: Sunny, with a high near 74. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph.


North northeast surface wind, 13 – 15 mph noon through 3 PM, 11 mph after that.

NAM3 forecast:

1 PM:


Lift: 597 fpm (other models similar)

TOL: 5,632’ (other models similar)

Cloudbase: No cu’s (All other models show no cu’s except NAM 12, which shows TOL
1,000’ higher)

Surface wind: north northeast 11 mph (other models show 9 – 15 mph)

TOL wind: north northeast 19 mph (other models vary between 15 and 23 mph)

4 PM:


Lift: 577 fpm (other models vary between 398 and 736 fpm)

TOL: 5,964’ (other models vary between 5,301’ and 7,289’)

Cloudbase: No cu’s or 6,000’

Surface wind: north northeast 12 mph (other models vary between 9 and 12 mph)

TOL wind: north northeast 14 mph (other models vary between 14 and 19 mph)

SkySight (between 1 PM and 4 PM):


Lift: 400 – 450 fpm

TOL: 4,000’ – 6,000’ (6,000’ – 7,000’ to the south later)

Cloudbase: No cu’s

Surface wind: north northeast 8 – 12 mph

TOL wind: north northeast early at 20 – 22 mph calming to 14 – 16 mph later

OP40:

1 PM:


TOL: 6,700’

42 degrees

North northeast wind 11 mph at surface level and 18 mph at TOL

Thin cu’s possible

4 PM:


TOL: 7,700’

39 degrees

North northeast wind 11 mph at surface level to 14 mph at TOL

Thin cu’s possible

Actually the cu's formed early and they were maybe 1,000' thick and very
plentiful.

Niki Longshore, Larry Bunner, Raul Guerra, Greg Dinauer, Kip Stone and I along
with a few others took off in early bird. The lift was weak but we managed to
climb to 4,700'. We had to go searching after that and hung in zero or less for
a good while until Larry showed us the lift to our west, downwind. We all got
under him and all climbed to 6,700'.

The wind was blowing 11 to 13 mph out of the northeast so that we were drifting
rather quickly to the edge of the 15 km start cylinder so we headed back upwind
to the inviting cu's. I found 180+ fpm under an expansive cu and slowly climbed
up from 4,700' to 6,900' as I drifted at about the right speed downwind toward
the edge of the start cylinder in time for the second clock. Larry took the
first one.

Hitting the edge of the start cylinder high ten seconds after it opened was
reassuring. Greg and Niki were just behind me. About twelve gliders were below.
Jeff Chipman pushed out in front about 1,000' lower and I was just behind him.

The next two thermals came in quick succession at 350+ fpm to 7,000' so I was
flying at first at 80 km/h downwind then 85 km/h speed over the ground with an
11 to 18 mph tail wind. We were all pushing it just leaving good lift just
before cloud base.

Four kilometers before the first turnpoint we turned in 280+ fpm and I left at
6,500'. Perhaps I should have stayed longer. There were good looking cu's ahead.

On the glide from that last thermal around the turnpoint and off toward the west
southwest I lost 4,000' in 16 km, down to 2,500' (1,700' AGL). Niki was nearby
also low and Krzys was just above us. Robin Hamilton had gone out in front and
stayed higher. He was to our north over Beloit.

Niki and I spent the next fourteen minutes working lift that at best averaged 60
fpm to 3,000', but slowly died out as we searched and searched in the 11 mph
wind. Krzys got even lower just a kilometer away down to 1,000' AGL. Robin
worked weak lift over the town of Beloit from 2,500' AGL. Everyone else was
behind us working whatever they found from higher altitudes.

Back down to 2,500' MSL Niki and I went searching but didn't find anything. Bart
Weghorst landed with us.

The whole area was very weak and pilots worked and worked to get any lift. Krzys
was able to finally get up as was Robin and the rest of the pilots around us.

Looking over the flight in detail I see that I should have stayed in the lift
four kilometers from the turnpoint for another 500 feet at least. I would have
had thermal markers out in front if I had done so. Also there was just a bit of
bad luck finding weak lift to stay in that didn't pan out.

Many pilots made goal. Some very quick. The replay is great.

https://airtribune.com/play/2518/2d