For the third day in a row the forecast showed local over
development  and no fronts coming through. The southeast  surface
winds started out over 10 mph and 15 mph up above, but all the winds actually
mellowed out as forecasted. Convergence up highway 301 to the north meant a
task to Keystone airport 147 kilometers away. With the chance of over
development after 5 PM, I called for the launching to start at noon.

The NAM 5 PM lift forecast:

The sky was full of cloud streets at 11 AM, so noon sure seemed like a
reasonable time to get going despite the fact that we had waited to much later
on most days. John Simon wasn't even out of bed by then.

I had to relaunch after pinning off too low. Mick Howard got up right after I
launched first. I found 270 fpm to 3,000' and then we headed out together with
Mick higher.

The next three thermals averaged less than 150 fpm. It was very mellow flying
but I was falling behind Mick and not getting over 3,200'. Not until I not over
the aquafarm, the spot that was hot the day before, just four kilometers south
the Turnpike did I find 350 fpm to 3,400', the highest I would get all day.

The wind was 10 mph out of the south and pushing us toward Leesburg and not only
airspace but not great landing opportunities, but given the generally weak
conditions, but lots of cumulus clouds. I had to stick with the street I was in
until I could find a chance to jump to the west. Mick was struggling down to
1,000' just north of the Turnpike as I worked 100 fpm over an open area that
drifted me over the swamp (a wet treed area) south of Baron to 3,200'. There
were no solid cores to be found, at least by me.

We heard from John Simon that he was in the air about a half an hour after us.

Looking ahead at the south-east corner of the Villages from my perch south of
Baron, I decided to jump two kilometers to the west to a open field with trees
downwind on the north side (more swamp) that had worked for me before. I worked
120 fpm from 1,800' as John behind us was catching up fast. He was working 200
fpm while we were working less than 150 fpm and starting from low.

Getting back to 3,200', but not to cloud base at 3,500', I headed out north over
the Villages keeping close track of the fairways on the numerous golf courses. I
was getting a very close look at the whole layout as I moved from the southeast
corner to the northwest corner. I took a long look at the east side of the
Villages and the open fields and just felt that getting to the west side was
preferable. Besides I needed to get there to be ready for the later part of the
flight.

Looking for the best landing fields that also looked like they produced. I
headed northwest toward the more open side of the Villages which wouldn't
require a golf course landing. Down again to 1,800' I found 260 fpm to 3,000'. I
just could not get to cloud base.

Mick was eight kilometers to the north and John Simon was about to catch up with
me. I had to push west once again cross wind to get under some cu's and found
190 fpm from 1,400' again over landable fields that looked like they would be
hot and climbed to 3,200'. John had cruised through the Villages high apparently
just gliding while Mick was struggling near Leeward a few kilometers to my north
and I was picking myself off the ground.

That was it for me. The next time I tried to pick it up from 1,500' it didn't
cooperate and I was forced to land next to highway 301 just south of Bellevue.
Mick was getting back up and John was soon about to pass him also.

The landing areas get scarce for a good while north of Leeward and John moved a
ways to the west to help get round that problem. He and Mick carefully made
their way north not getting high, which complicates things. It opens up for a
while and then up by Orange Lake the trees dominate the landscape and you've got
to be careful about which LZ's are available just in case. John said he wouldn't
be high enough to make the next LZ, but he would drift with the wind in light
lift until he was close enough to it. He did this a few times.

Mick got too low after making the error of leaving his lift under his street for
John's and decided that enough was enough and landed in a safe LZ. He would
later get rained on hard, which we saw in the forecast and then saw on the
radar.

John was finally able to get to 5,000' and make it to goal. We heard later that
Andrey Solomykin got within 40 kilometers and Mark Bourbonnais also made it to
goal. We left many pilots behind.

https://www.xcontest.org/world/en/flights/detail:davisstraub/3.4.2018/16:23