https://ozreport.com/22.152#0

CIVL's version:

Mike's version:

I’ve seen that safety matrix before. It has even showed up at at
least one SETP symposium. I don’t think it’s defensible. It seems to me that if
you think about it even a little, the matrix, if it has any meaning or value at
all, could only look like this:

My argument, which is the same argument I made in my 1998 article in Hang
Gliding magazine and in my 2015 paper to SETP, is that if the outcome is
catastrophic, it doesn’t really matter if the probability is low – it’s still a
catastrophic outcome.