The
results.




http://www.westcoastbrit.blogspot.com/



http://www.jonnydurand.blogspot.com/







Sometimes I get frustrated when I look at the forecasts and they tell me one
thing, and everyone around me is calling up magic numbers and telling me
something different. Sure, the forecasts could be wrong, and have been. Sure, I
could be wrong, having missed a vital piece of information, and have been. But,
over all the NSW RASP and XCSkies are very good at forecasting (especially if
used together and if you know what might cause them to be wrong).



So everyone else was telling that there was a good chance of over development
today, and I said no, there wouldn't be any overdevelopment, which is a pretty
strong statement given that it was a prediction not a known fact.



The CAPE on NSW RASP was blue or green all day (I hadn't used the CAPE before on
RASP because I rarely have to deal with thunderstorms.) The OD cloud base (which
it showed) was much less extensive, came later, and ended earlier, and was off
to our side relative to the previous days. The KeepIt projected trace line
showed a dry air mass above (like yesterday) and the wet bulb and temperature
profiles did not meet. These were plenty of clues that called for no
overdevelopment. No one listened.



This matters because we call a task based on whether there is a good chance of
overdevelopment or not. I insist that there is not and that we should call a
long task. I prevail in this. And there is not overdevelopment. In fact there
are darn few cu's.



I am not the meet weather forecaster, so I don't make the same effort as I
normally would to get the forecast down (there are over a hundred charts to look
at in the morning). But is bugs me that the person charged with this task is so
woefully ignorant of these tools. His forecasts (and those of the local Bureau
of Meteorology) are laughably incorrect. I have to spend my morning dealing with
scorekeeping issues, so I can't concentrate on the weather, but I can still
quickly see where the "official" forecast has gone off the rails. (The local BOM
forecast has been almost always for northeast winds, which we have not had on
any day.)



XCSkies is great for forecasting the winds on launch (2000' winds) and I use it
to figure out the best place to go long before I get to the top of the hill. It
forecasted west wind turning south (slowly) during the day. If you go up to the
west launch at Mt. Borah it is easy to scoot over to the south launch if the
winds change.



The task committee called a 154 km task to the north (given the forecast for
8-10 knot south southeast winds average through the boundary layer in the
afternoon) with a return leg of 30 km from Warialdra south back to Bingara.
Jonny thought that the winds wouldn't be that high (more magic numbers, I
guess). Cloud base is supposed to get up to maybe over 10,000' very late in the
afternoon. It is supposed to start around 7,500'.



The launch conditions were good with a steady breeze punctuated by strong
thermals coming in from the western face when we set up. The punters were
launching but not getting high. There were no cu's locally, but some off in the
distance. We could see some vertical development 100 km to the west and this
continued to scare the people who thought that the OD was soon to be upon us.



A punter 360-ed into a tree on the hillside which was a source of great fun (he
wasn't injured at all, but his chute will have a hard time getting out of
there). There were a few paragliders in the air, but none were getting up.



Raef decided that with half an hour to go before the first start clock that it
was time for him to launch. I was the only other pilot getting into my harness.
Raef launched and quickly bombed out. I waited for a good launch cycle then took
off ignoring Raef's problems. There were two punters in the air just above
launch.



I headed for the small spine to the north of launch and found a weak thermal,
but plenty good enough to turn in, given Raef's predicament. It would average
175 fpm and I would stay in it for 17 minutes. This was an introduction to a day
much different than the day before when I took 700 fpm to cloud base. This
impressed me with how slow (and steady) the climb rate for the day was, and that
I should be conservative when out of the course line. I drifted quickly to the
north away from launch in the seven mph wind.



Apparently my climb out, even with the two orange paragliders above me happy to
join me in the thermal that I found for them, didn't impress the crew on launch.
No one even turned their glider around to face the launch. It looked like I
would be alone in the sky.



I followed the paragliders down the ridge a little. I had to stay within the
five kilometer start circle radius and they didn't so I was prepared to come
back if they didn't find anything. They did, right at the edge of the circle and
I joined them in weak lift.



Still no one was launching and the first start clock hadn't opened and I was
only at about 6,000', so I hung out in the light lift to see what would happen.
As the first start clock came and went I was slowly climbing but able to stay at
the edge of the start circle. Now a few pilots were beginning to launch and I
could see them circling and climbing very slowly 5 km's away.



I continued to climb and as the second start clock approached I was getting
reasonably high. Just before I left the start circle I could see a dozen pilots
in the air on the south side of Mt. Borah but very low relative to me at 7,700'.
I had no desire to go back and join them even though I knew I would be out on my
own if I left now. At least there were a couple of paraglider pilots down the
range (or I assumed that there would be given the wind).



I headed off into the blue knowing that the first cumulus clouds were a long
ways away. I would have to find some lift in the blue before I could get to them
by Barraba. Fortunately after a nine kilometer glide I spotted one of the orange
paragliders circling and coming over a rocky ledge at 1,500' AGL (4,000') I
hooked into what he was in and was able to get back to 7,600'. I knew I needed a
lot of height to make it to the cu's by Barraba.



An eleven kilometer glide and I spotted the orange paraglider again in the blue,
not yet to the clouds. I came in under him and that was enough to get me to
5,800' which was enough altitude, I figured to make it to the first cu's. I
glided from southwest of Barraba to the northwest side and hooked into 400+ fpm.
This time I returned the favor and the orange paraglider came in under me.



I left at 8,200' and headed for the next set of cu's to the north northwest. The
wind was 12 mph out of the southeast. I didn't really want to go more downwind
of the course line (I was already two km west of it), but that is where the cu's
were and I was going to make sure I went to them.



I got under the next cu after an eight kilometer glide and climbed back to
7,700'. Things were going well. I was over the high ground to the west of the
highway and getting further off the course line. There were more cu's ahead but
further into the hills and further off the course line. Still I was committed to
go to the lift.



It was fourteen kilometers until I got under some working cu's. I was over a
canyon, low (2,000' AGL) working a hill side, and in very weak lift. The road
was a long ways away. My escape route was way to the west way way off the course
line. Belinda was stopped at Cobbadah ready to take the road to the west.



 I climbed out as the lift went to 200 fpm and drifted to the north. Over a
treed plateau at 6,000' I finally found the good lift at 500 fpm and climbed to
8,700'. Before me to the north was twenty kilometers of trees over the plateau.
I was now seven kilometers west of the course line. There was a valley to the
west further off the course line. The good thermals looked to be to the north
northeast back by the course line. I figured with my altitude I could make it to
the best looking clouds to the north northeast and get back by the road and get
back near the course line.



It was a fourteen kilometer glide and by the time I got to the eastern edge of
the plateau and just to the east side of the dark cu's I had lost 4,000'. I flew
along the eastern edge of the plateau assuming that the winds were coming from
the southeast as they had earlier and that the cu's were forming off of thermals
coming up from the plateau or up from the hillsides at the eastern edge of the
plateau. What I wasn't aware of was the fact that the wind had changed down low
and was now light north at 3 mph.



I was unwilling to go deep into the plateau as there were few landing areas and
it would make retrieve very difficult if I landed up there. I glided north along
the plateau under cu after cu seeming to come from the southeast (according to
the shadows) and appearing to come off the hillside. But found only very weak
lift and nothing coherent. I kept turning when I found a little bit of lift but
nothing developed.



I kept this up for nine kilometers until the plateau ended just south of Bingara.
Down to 2,990' (1000' AGL) I headed out into the valley where I saw a little cu.
Before  I got there I found some lift over a farm and started circling. I
gained 500', but it was very slow and inconsistent (50 fpm). I saw another cu
forming on the hill side just south of me and went upwind to try to get under
it. Again the hillside let me down.



Coming back to the farm the lift was gone and I went down wind to land at the
goal (without making the turnpoint) at the race track at Bingara.



The hillside and the plateau were quite frustrating. As I was breaking down I
saw the orange paraglider and two hang gliders on the east side of the valley in
the hills to the east getting up from low. Apparently if I had just gone to the
other side of the valley instead of hanging onto the ridge line were all the
cu's were I would have found the lift. Argh!

http://OzReport.com/1233832444