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27.05.2009
The Great Recession


NY Times article


What happens when you company goes from producing 14,000 {units} a year to 2,800 in one year? Consider that those {units} go from $20,000 to $500,000 each. Basically your company implodes and you have downsize at a rate that you haven't ever seen, and only your grandfathers or great grandfathers saw.


What happens to all your suppliers who have been squeezed to produce the most cost effective parts at high run rates when suddenly you aren't buying any parts from them? What happens when the parts suppliers' suppliers of the raw materials suddenly have no market for their raw materials?


Just a financial meltdown? It's got a long ways to go yet. It's not only the car manufacturers (and their supply chain) that are in big big trouble.


http://www.nybooks.com/articles/22756


I would agree that the rate of economic contraction is slowing down. But we're still contracting at a pretty fast rate. I see the economy contracting all the way through the end of the year, going from minus 6 to minus 2, not plus 2. And next year the growth of the economy is going to be very slow, 0.5 percent as opposed to the 2 percent–plus predicted by the consensus. Also, the unemployment rate this year is going to be above 10 percent, and is likely to be close to 11 percent next year. Thus, next year is still going to feel like a recession, even if we're technically out of the recession.


http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/22/gratuitous-ignorance/


Just this to add: it’s bad enough to have people resurrecting 75-year old fallacies about macroeconomics right in the middle of a crisis in which knowledge is our only defense against catastrophe. What’s really bad, however, is when they do so believing that these fallacies are deep insights that have somehow eluded those of us who have, you know, been studying these issues for a while, and saw some (not all) of this crisis in advance.



http://OzReport.com/1243430575
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