The LMR NTSS formula exposed
The CWG/LMR proposal is to count each entrant as bringing 1% or 6 points (assuming the maximum was 600 points). US NTSS ranked pilots bring additional points as per the chart below:
Pilots ranked: |
Points brought: |
1-5 |
3.0% |
6-10 |
2.9% |
11-15 |
2.7% |
16-20 |
2.4% |
21-25 |
2.0% |
26-30 |
1.5% |
31-35 |
0.9% |
46-40 |
0.0% |
41-45 |
0.0% |
46-50 |
0.0% |
>50 |
0.0% |
Now the LMR proposal actually changes the maximum to 1000 points, but that makes absolutely no difference and it is easier to use the existing 600 points maximum to be compatible with results from the previous year (2008) which
uses the 600 point maximum.
Foreign pilots are counted as warm bodies only, and only one foreign meet over two years counts.
Again, Dave Wheeler has graciously volunteered to determine what the outcome would be if this system was applied to the 2009 hang gliding competitions. This is the result of his analysis:
Competition
| Validity
|
|---|
Original
| New
|
|---|
Forbes Flatland |
507 |
417 |
Bogong Cup |
472 |
268 |
NSW State Titles |
144 |
364 |
Rob Kells Memorial |
600 |
419 |
Flytec Race & Rally |
560 |
395 |
East Coast Championship |
300 |
300 |
King Mountain Nats |
300 |
300 |
Big Spring US Nats |
482 |
359 |
Santa Cruz Flats Race |
447 |
376 |
Most meet got fewer points, one got more, two stayed at the minimum. There was a general flattening out of the differences between meets, as about the same number of pilots attended them and the quality of pilots counted less.
So how did this affect the top ten in the NTSS ranking? Here's how:
The new ranking based on the LMR proposal:
Here is the original ranking:
Again not much has changed in the top ten.
So why are we going to all this trouble if it doesn't make any difference? Or you could ask, why are some meet organizers opposed to this particular part of the LMR proposal if it doesn't make any difference? Again the cream rises.
Well, it is a good thing that the top ten stays the same essentially, because that means our competition system is robust. We can make drastic changes to how we calculate who are the top pilots and it doesn't matter, the top pilots are the same top pilots. It's good that we can't jigger the system to choose those pilots whom we may favor for extraneous reasons.
But, of course, the question is would this new proposal bring in new competitors because it would be perceived, even if it isn't the case, as more egalitarian? Is perception enough to change reality?
Also, assuming that other meets spring up for whatever reason, do they now seem valuable because they can have about as many points as the "big" meets because presumably the warm bodies count for so much (although it is not clear that they
do)?
http://OzReport.com/1255099694
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