2010 Bogong Cup - day five
I called off the fifth day of the Bogong Cup given the forecast
for 14 knot winds at 4000' at 2 PM from the west (5 degrees north of west). A
substantial inversion at 6,500'. High winds (50 knots) above the inversion.
In addition, the winds were double what they were yesterday at Falls Creek and
Mount Hotham (in the mountains to the south) with westerly components. Aus RASP
forecasted 30 knots west winds at the top of the lift.
After yesterday there was a concern that we were stupidly flying in conditions
that were unsafe. Some pilots had pretty acceptable flights and other landed
soon after launching because they felt it was not safe for them to fly. I
measured no more than twelve mph winds, but that was enough given the inversion,
the wind direction, and the hill sides, to create considerable turbulence. Out
on the flats this would have been no problem.
After much discussion and soul searching, and a delayed decision with an
additional pilot briefing at 11 AM, I decided to not send us up the hill. That
was the decision that needed to be made. Whether or not to even go up the hill
and have a look. I believe that this represents a turning point in having faith
in the weather models.
I have been using the RASP, XCSkies, BLIPMAP, GFS, NAM, RUC models and
representations for years and for many of those years I was a lonely voice in
the wilderness. At this meeting this morning I saw as I have seen over the past
few weeks many others who now have experience with these forecasts who find them
generally reliable. They were persuaded by the forecasts that it was not worth
the effort to do it the old fashion way and go up the hill and see what it was
like.
We will see tonight if we should have relied so heavily on them.
Of course, we didn't rely completely on the models. The fact that there were
lenticulars in the area was another indication that we might experience high
winds even at our lower altitudes. Add to that the reported winds in the
mountains.
Decisions are always emotional. You can have all the facts at hand, but without
the emotional components of your brain functioning you won't be able to make a
decision. This we know for neuroscience. I didn't know which decision I would
make until I made it.
Check out Jamie's blog above for a look at the clouds above us.
http://OzReport.com/1263959370
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