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13.04.2010
The longer range weather outlook


The graphs
here. This one is for the temperatures in April. The one for precipitation
calls for above normal in April

Discussion of El Nino,
here.


El Niño conditions continue across the equatorial pacific ocean
with sea surface temperature (SST) departures of +1.0 degree c or greater across
much of the central pacific. Ocean sub-surface temperature anomalies also remain
positive from the surface to a depth of approximately 130 m east of the dateline
along the equator across the pacific, therefore el Niño conditions are expected
to continue easily through April 2010.

Current atmospheric conditions in the tropics are consistent with el Niño.
Enhanced tropical convection across the pacific ocean near the date line is
evident as well as anomalous low-level westerly wind anomalies across portions
of the west-central pacific during the past 30 days. Based on the aforementioned
oceanic and atmospheric conditions, el Niño remains a factor in the April 2010
monthly outlook for the us.

We need to point out that the ENSO impact depends on season. We may see
continued el Niño type forcing in the tropics and a direct or delayed
atmospheric response in the mid-latitude for April, but less so than in march.
Some ENSO impacts over the us experienced during last winter may carry over in
lagged fashion into April and later through soil moisture anomalies, as well as
by widespread negative SST anomalies in the gulf of Mexico and southwest
Atlantic.



http://OzReport.com/1271161970
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