The forecasts have been changing rapidly during each day. So we
haven't paid much attention to them other than for the wind speed and direction.
The RUC and NAM are way under calling the surface temperature relative to the
NWS local forecast for the Florida Ridge, so if the NWS is right we are going to
have better lift and a higher cloud base than the soarcasts are predicting.



With a forecasted north northeast wind at up to 20 knots through the boundary
layer (top of the lift) we call a turnpoint to the southwest and then Imokolee
airfield  to the south. We need to get over to an actual highway going
south to make for a possible retrieve and we can't go any further south than
Imokolee as we soon run into the Everglades for real (well, actually Big Cypress
Swamp).



It's a short task but given the vast uncertainly in the weather, the limits on
what we can do to the south, the huge tracts of difficult retrieve to our south
(but not to our south southeast or south southwest) it is the best we can do. We
would call some upwind legs if we thought that cloud base would be high or if
the lift looked like it would be strong, but we don't know that and after a full
day of rain and rain the day before we aren't looking to find crackin' thermals.



We also set a Sport Class task, a short one, just to the turnpoint for the open
class. We are very concerned that Sport Class pilots will not stay away from the
difficult to retrieve areas and I caution them to go against the north wind and
stay as close to highway 80 as possible. Still some will end up where they will
be unhappy with their ride home if and when it comes.



I launch along with the rigid wings who took their own sweet time about getting
going. No one in the Open Class is all that excited either. I pin  off a
little early in weak lift that is attractive enough to bring over Campbell Bowen
and Jim Yocom in their exotic versions of the ATOSes, but which doesn't get very
strong or get us very high.



I'm struggling along with Jeff O'Brien who got off early also, having to push
back upwind to find lift and still stay in contact with the launch area. We both
lose it and land and get yanked up a few minutes later. By then Jeff Shapiro and
Jonny Durand have gone on course at the 1:30 PM start clock.



We both get good tows to a well marked thermal/gaggle two kilometers south of
the Florida Ridge flight park. This is necessary but it's not great as we really
want to stay as far north as possible against the north wind. The wind is
averaging about 13 mph out of the northeast.



The lift is much better when you start higher up and O'Brien and I climb up and
join Zac Majors. There is a line of small cu's coming at us from the northeast
so we just jump forward and a little north to get under them and stay in the
lift. We could leave at 1:45 PM from 3,500' but we wait for the 2 PM start gate
at 3,200' and a bit further to the north, which makes it easier to stay upwind
of the course line.



Zac leads out with Max, a Brazilian pilot next too him. I'm third with Derrick
Turner. and Joe Bostik in tow. We head west northwest away from the west
southwest course line to get to the nearest bank of clouds and stay away from
the blue hole on the course line. The cu's are congested to our west and north.



Zac finds good lift to 3,900' as the wind pushes us down the course line just
north and upwind of it. Zac and Max leave, then later Derrick and finally Joe
and I. We see them head into the dark and get low so Joe and I head toward the
light and the edge of the congested cu's to the south and stay higher. Soon we
are high over Derrick but don't see Zac or Max. Jim Yocom is low and soon
landing. Another ATOS pilot is low there also way below us but gets back up.



I find weak lift (50 fpm) and five or six of the pilots who started behind us
come in under and join me including O'Brien. This only gets me to 3,000' so I
move ahead.



Joe and Chris Zimmerman have gone ahead but are in the shaded area and low. I
find 170 fpm just before the turnpoint and climb back to 3,300' before nicking
the turnpoint and heading south. Zac is low at 800' and climbing slowly. Jeff is
likewise.



I see a pilot in front of me turning wide turns, climbing slowly and drifting
downwind. I make the mistake of not joining him, as all those behind me do, and
don't find any more lift over the soaking wet fields.



Jeff Shapiro was the first into goal with Jonny Durand three minutes behind him,
then Dustin. Zac, Joe,Julia, and O'Brien made goal, as did about ten pilots, a
third of the field. The task was short (in time and distance) relative to the
GAP parameters so it will be devalued. We knew before we started that it would
be a less than 100% valid day.



Scores should be up late tonight. Jamie Shelden will start the downloads in half
an hour and I'll do the scoring after that.

http://OzReport.com/1271714861