Here is the NAM forecast on 8:40 AM Tuesday morning for the
surface temperature:

The white area is a forecast for 92-95 degrees at 2 PM.

Here is the RUC forecast at the same time:

The red area is a forecast for 83-85 degrees, a ten degree difference.

The local NWS forecast for Groveland is for a high of 92 degrees.

Here is the NAM forecast for lift at 2 PM:

It shows 500-600 fpm for Groveland.

Here is the RUC forecast:

It shows 200-300 fpm.

A rather broad range of uncertainty.