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The local Bureau of Meteorology forecast called for a chance of rain and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. RASP was showing sixteen knots winds at the top
of lift out of the east dying late in the afternoon around Forbes but not so
much to the west. There would be cumulus clouds but they were also die off in
the late afternoon around Forbes.

The CAPE forecast gave some idea of what to expect with the possibility of
thunderstorms near Forbes in the late afternoon spreading west. So we saw the
weather as coming from the east and the winds out of the east. Given this
forecast the task committee had us go 180 km west and wanted us to start as
early as possible because the lift was forecasted to die early at Forbes (it
showed this happening between noon and one). The launch opened at 11:15 AM and
the first start window at 12:30. The top twenty pilots couldn't go until 1 PM.

As I rode out to the field I could see that the sky way to the east held the
promise of worsening weather. It was sunny and blue over Forbes and over the
airfield. The surface wind was stronger than we have had here this year and the
start cylinder was set at 15 km to accommodate that wind level.

No one was eager to launch at 11:15 with no cu's near us. But soon some started
appearing over our heads. Some pilots starting lining up before noon and we got
going. I launched a little after noon and getting off at 1,800' AGL found the
going to be quite difficult.

The lift averaged about 100 fpm when I found it and I was drifting quickly away
from the launch area in the 10 mph wind, and often losing the core as it was
broken up by the winds. I went back toward the launch area five times, only once
getting over 4,000'. Finally Larry Bunner launched and reported 400 fpm over the
launch area. I came in just under him and we climbed out together to over
5,500'.

The first start time that I could take had already passed and there was no way
we could get out to fifteen kilometers in seven minutes to get the second start
time at 1:15 on time. But our job at this point was to just stay in the air.
Numerous pilots had already landed in the start cylinder and many were low below
us.

We were back up to 5,500' at two minutes passed the second clock but we still
had to go six kilometers to get to the edge if we wanted to go now, but we
actually wanted to wait and get the last clock. Unfortunately, there was no
convenient thermal to get into so we headed out toward the edge of the start
cylinder and didn't find good lift until we were well passed it and unable to
reasonably make it back against the wind.

There were plenty of cu's and plenty of midlevel clouds now shading the ground
in front of us. We were working 150 to 180 fpm thermals and just trying to hold
on as we couldn't get that high with the cloud base at around 5,500'. After a
twelve kilometer glide we found 400 fpm to 5,300' under a nice looking cu with
sunlit fields around it.

The next cu produced only 220 fpm and we left at 4,600, so again not high. We
could see some pilots turning ahead of us and came in under a nice cu over a
little hill. The cu produced nothing but we worked 140 fpm over the rocks in the
sunshine on the back side of the hill with a Wedge Tail. We just needed a little
altitude to get to the next cu and left with 4,400'.

I found 1,200 fpm down on glide as Larry kept to the left of that line and
gained 1,000' on me in a four kilometer glide. We could see four pilots climbing
in the next thermal and we joined them, me much lower. That thermal was a winner
at 500 fpm, but now I lost my flying partner and flew alone the rest of the way
just hearing where he was getting lift ahead of me.

Like the previous day there were large areas of shaded ground and cu's and
midlevel clouds. The lift conditions were now improving and the cores were firm
and constant. I would normally average 400 to 500 fpm in a given thermal. There
was a large shaded area to go through but it was edged in sunlight and it was
made up of cumulus development so it was possible to get up and fly with light
sink under the dark clouds. Larry was doing well just ahead with Lukas and
Blinky.

I wasn't looking behind but the rain started sprinkling at the Forbes airfield
one hour after we left. Where we were there was no sign of any overdevelopment
or other concerns. Forty kilometers out from goal there were two cu's with some
vertical development and black bottoms. I found lift on the edge of one and rode
it to 7,700' making sure that there was an escape for me if it got too strong. I
was able to get right under the cu and just keep going after getting high.

I left the cu with thirty kilometers to go. The sky had opened up a bit past the
cu's and there was more sunlight on the ground and little cu's ahead. I found
one thirteen kilometers from goal and that was enough to get me in. Larry had
arrived about fifteen or twenty minutes earlier. Ricker had started earlier and
Larry and I passed him, but he showed up soon after me at goal.

It looked to me like twenty five to thirty pilots eventually made goal as many
landed after me.

The flight on the
HOLC, on
XContest, on
Leonardo.

Coming back toward Forbes we saw what was way behind us, a massive storm with
strong winds, blowing red dust, and lots of rain. It must have been at least 100
km wide. In one twenty kilometer section of the highway we must have seen well
over a thousand birds that may have landed due to the high winds.