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Sometimes a forecast can just bum a bunch of pilots out, without reality
actually having a say in the matter. Our forecast for the day from the animated
RASP was for 25 knot winds at 4,000' and at cloud base. In addition, light
spotty lift, low cloud base (4,000' to 5,000' near Forbes), and scattered rain
in the afternoon. The CAPE forecast didn't show any chance of thunderstorms
though.

This is our life in Forbes with La Nina. Unsettled weather, unlike last year
with maximum conditions every day. This day was forecasted to be weak. The
surface winds were predicted to be 16 knots.

But when I rode to the Vandenberg Hotel at 8:30 AM, the winds were quite light,
there were scattered upper level clouds, which didn't look as bad as the
forecast. It seemed to me that things were actually better than predicted.

The task committee blew up after we (Vicky, Attila, Jonny, and I) changed the
task at the last minute yesterday to avoid airspace (not a popular move in some
quarters) and after Attila and Gerolf appeared to have forgotten that the top
twenty pilots did not have a mandatory start at 1 PM, but were not allowed to go
until 1 PM. Trent and Carl were dragooned into replacing the missing members for
today. The task committee has worked so well together that it is a little
upsetting to see this.

Given the iffy forecast the new task committee calls a shorter task than has
been the case on the previous days and we have a task to the west to Tullibigeal,
113 km.

When we get out to the airfield there are cumulus clouds, but mostly upper level
clouds providing shade, and to the east thicker clouds. The winds up above are
15 knots but there is light wind on the ground. Things are actually pretty
reasonable and safe looking. We set for the 11:30 launch window and 12:45 start
time (through 1:30).

The wind picks up now and then at the tow paddock, but for the most part it is
quite moderate to light. Most of the cu's are now downwind of the airfield and
high clouds block the sun at the airfield making the prospect of lift on tow
less likely. Peter Dall in his ATOS gets towed up first to at least 4,000' AGL
and after a while reports 400 fpm. Otherwise it looks very weak and pilots are
quite reluctant to launch.

Some pilots are concerned about the launching conditions. I watch the first few
launches carefully and they look very smooth, certainly much smoother than the
previous day. The only issue for me is will we get up given the high clouds and
the lack of cu's right over the field.

I get in line and take off at 12:36 a few minutes before the first start time at
12:45 for a smooth tow hitting no lift to 2,000' AGL where I get waved off. The
guy 1000' above me is still on tow. Oh, well.

I turn in "lift" that averages 17 fpm down. And then after a while find a bit of
34 fpm and then a bit of 27 fpm. I'm drifting west south west at 18 mph, at
2,600', too far downwind of the launch area to make it back if I wanted to.

I hook up with Larry Bunner and three other pilots and we find 200 fpm and climb
to 3,500' ten kilometers out from the start point but still inside the start
cylinder. We are ignoring the start times and just concentrating on staying up.
Back in the tow paddock 15 to 20 pilots decide not to launch, some for "safety"
reasons.

I lose the lift and four of the six pilots that I'm hanging in the thermal with
get up a few hundred feet over my head. One below me heads south and looks like
he loses a lot of altitude. I decide to head to the northwest crossing the start
cylinder at 1:20, five minutes after the 1:15 PM start time, the second to last
one. I head for the small ridge then not finding it over the hot rocks head on.

I head for sunlit ground with misty cu's above and get down to 1,000' AGL. There
is lift there, but of course I'm so low it is quite rough in the high winds. I
hold on and it averages 50 fpm. I have no choice being so low but to hang with
it. Larry finds much better lift behind me at the gap getting to 4,400'

I climb up to 2,400', find 140 fpm lift, turn around and go back and find 180
fpm, then finally latch onto 400 fpm as Larry gets well out ahead of me. I climb
to 6,100' over a grass runway twenty five kilometers from the Forbes airfield. A
mere ninety kilometers to go! The north component of the east northeast wind is
blowing me and everyone else south of the course line.

Larry warns of a blue hole ten kilometers ahead. I fly to the eastern edge of it
and search for lift in the sunlit areas under the cu's that mark the edge. After
losing 1,000' I find 220 fpm (as I watch a pilot below land) that drifts me out
into the shaded area that is lacking in cumulus clouds (not exactly blue, rather
gray above and dark below).

I have taken so long that a small cu does form in front of me and I go to it to
get 180 fpm to 5,200'.

I find 90 fpm on the western edge of the grey area where there are a few cu's.
The ground is mostly shaded no matter where I am from the high clouds. Getting
back to 4,000' I head further west and a bit to the north to make up for the
drift finding bit and pieces and mostly just hanging out. I find 60 fpm for a
few turns, 17 fpm, 110 fpm, 140 fpm.

There are nice cu's all around but not much is working very well and I'm staying
between 3,000' and 4,500'. Thirty kilometers from the goal I find 170 fpm at
3,700' and vow to stay in it until I get high enough to get under and near the
cloud base of the black elongated cu just to my northwest.

There are small areas of rain in front of me to the west and a very small one
ten km to the north. As I climb up one area rains, then stops, then rains again,
then stops. A few small areas to the south of the course line begin to rain. It
is not possible to see if there is a cu-nimb nearby, as the higher clouds are
shading the ground and blocking the sun above.

I climb to 6,000' and then head to the dark long cu ahead that is lined up the
get me back to the west northwest and to goal. Twenty five kilometers from goal
I get under the cu and just keep going slowing down in the 400 fpm lift, but not
turning as I am too close to cloud base to risk it.

I'm on final glide so I just keep going straight and climbing to 6,700'. As I
come out from under the cloud I'm at 6,000' and 15 kilometers from goal.

I pull in and make goal easily.

Larry had been on the radio reporting weak conditions from 40 kilometers out
from goal and he was not getting high at all, so it was good to climb out and
get high. I picked up a lot of distance and time on him in the final glide and
came in just after him. Maybe fifteen pilots made goal.

A big cell formed say twenty kilometers south of goal as we packed up. A little
bit of rain came from a cell to the north as we drove out of the field. The
conditions in the air were gentle (light lift after all) even with the 18 mph
wind. It was a day to hang on and drift when you were low.

The flight on the
HOLC, on
XContest, on
Leonardo.
The scoring on the
HOLC, on
XContest, on
Leonardo